Showing posts with label bubble. Show all posts
Showing posts with label bubble. Show all posts

Wednesday, December 9, 2015

"We just wanted to build the market, so we burned through our money," Unknown.

Many high flyers are flying straight into a banner with the words of the headline above written on it. It's not totally dumb for a startup to try to burn through a pile of cash and create a new market that it will turn into a future cash cow. It takes though, a lot of vision to achieve, and, of course, very patient investors.
Nigerian startup funding

Jet.com is the highest of these flyers, it is trying to take "some" of Amazon's business by spending it's way to growth in a span of a few years. As crazy as it sounds, these guys have vision. I must say. But there is a difference between vision and desperation, and the smaller "wanna be' flyers that I am seeing are more of the latter.

Selling stuff so cheap that a company shifts it's losses to it's investors is just the tip of the "losses for growth startup" icebergs we've been sailing through lately. Now startups give away money to users to have them sign up. You read that correct. You sign up with them, you get paid!

Not to pass any naive judgments here, many believe this is now the secret to building big startups fast, by losing money very fast in order to have growth. Uber, Airbnb, and many more are all doing this. My gut tells me this is not the right way, the Facebooks and the Googles where not built this way.

The main reason for this is probably the cheap money that is about to dry up in the coming months as credit is tightened with the coming rising interest rates. Then the market will get a reality check and we'll see if this strategy has worked or if it will backfire and then we'll see the ones saying - "We just wanted to build the market, so we burned through our money,"





Wednesday, March 9, 2011

The 2011 Forbes List (Tips another Bubble?)

Just read a report and went through the new Forbes top richest people's list and well, it shows an unexpected or even shocking increase in global wealth accumulation. I dont want to go into the detail of the list, here is a link for your thorough investigations of the complete list Forbes 2011 Wealthiest.

What I wanna do is discuss why I see signs of another bubble forming and how people should be careful not to fall into another unanticipated financial melt-down.

First-off I wanna start by saying that I am not an economist in anyway, I have no economic authority to issue any harsh warnings, rather, I have experience. A decade of closely monitoring patterns from stock rises to rich lists and so on.

Here is a bit of superstition....

In 2007 prior to the economic downturn, number of billionaire in China around doubled, same with this years list. Also prior to the burst Russia had the most number of billionaires. Russia has also claimed the most billionaire in 2011.

We also have a record number both in terms of billionaires and also their combined wealth. But I can't come up with a theory based on superstition.. I need genuine logical proof. Here we go

The Bubble..

The cause of the last financial crisis was the housing bubble, the one before it was caused by the Internet bubble. So, what bubble do I see for ming now?

I think the bubble may not have formed yet, but its gathering momentum and getting ready to form, blow up and burst in the future.

Why do I see a bubble now?..

We are still in the road to recovery while we are see bloated valuations for companies, assets and net-worths. The truth is the Global economy hasn't fully covered, may be not even halfway but we are seeing record wealth and net-worths. By the time the economy fully recovers, we'll completely be in a bubble.

Internet assets..

Internet companies are being valued much higher than media companies, while the Internet companies can't earn half in revenue of what media companies earn given the same content.

Due to this, many TV shows are skeptic of forgoing Network dollars of streaming chicken change.

Africa..

There isn't a bubble forming here, Africa is actually undervalued and has lots of potential in the coming future. As economies improve and new development comes to Africa, we will see similar growth rates to what we have seen in India and China in the past decade.